Global Direct Investment Solutions

Corporate Development for a Networked World

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Alerts

Bruce Donnelly   bruce@gdi-solutions.com    (Biography)

The GDI Alerts™ are a participants-only service under development, and are intended primarily for use by corporate executives to quickly alert their peers at other companies to developments related to global direct investment decisions.

The vision behind The GDI Alerts™ is to provide a more direct and dynamic process for executives and other participants to alert each other to news of potential importance (not routine press releases or news which they can readily find elsewhere). 

The focus is to provide very timely and actionable insights by calling major problems, opportunities, or other important developments to the attention of peers who may otherwise not yet be aware of the situation.

GDI Solutions would provide the infrastructure and support services to help design, implement, and operate a valuable Alerts  process as a shared service for the benefit of all participating companies. 

This would probably be a separate, secure process rather than part of this website, so that only the participating executives could contribute and share such knowledge quickly and privately, without making it available to general Internet users.  The source of the information could also be kept confidential when necessary.

Much of the initial design and development work will remain confidential for obvious reasons.  Without additional resources, it may take some time to develop this service, or the idea may be abandoned if sufficient interest is not identified among executives to make it a profitable service.

For now, GDI Solutions already attempts to alert participating executives to important developments through the relationship development process and referrals to professional services providers and information sources in this niche which may help to address specific concerns or interests.

Executives who choose to support the design process need not be identified unless they would like to visibly sponsor these efforts through financial or other significant commitments which they feel should be disclosed.  Note, in this regard, that GDI Solutions is set up as a privately held corporation with no intention to become a publicly traded firm, nor is it seeking investments in the company.  It just welcomes financial and other support, such as technical resources, to develop this service.

Timely knowledge can already be shared through the GUIDE and SICR services of GDI Solutions, as illustrated in the sections on Referrals, sharing "proven solutions" or "lesson learned", suggestions for additional contacts and information sources for the tables in the Participants section, feedback to GDI Solutions about service providers or area representatives, or through any suggestions for the Special Interest highlights or Projects sections. 

Those, however, basically involve sharing of factual knowledge, contacts, and information sources with GDI Solutions through the assigned relationship leader (as a single point of contact for participating executives).  We can then selectively publish that knowledge as appropriate on this website, or share it more confidentially or anonymously through our usual introductory referral processes.  By contrast, The GDI Alerts™ are intended to address situations which may require prompt actions or consideration.  They involve far more dynamic and timely knowledge, including the potential uncertainties of fast-changing market situations.

The biographic sketch about the founder of GDI Solutions illustrates the background behind this idea of the value of turning global executives into a very dynamic and responsive knowledge-sharing network to report the latest events of potential interest to their peers.

Why not give top executives a better and more independent global reporting network than even their government leaders enjoy?  Why rely on news media reporting and analysis to address their interests, since such sources have other objectives and perhaps less knowledge or insights, and far more limited networks of contacts, including sources of unknown bias or reliability?

Thousands of executives could potentially choose to alert their peers to specific news of potential interest anywhere in the world on a very fast and focused basis.

There are far more executives around the world than all the diplomats, intelligence officers, and journalists put together.  One need not network a large number of them together to create a process which can provide faster and better information for use by top executives than any available sources today because of the potential focus on actionable business knowledge from reliable sources in the middle of complex or fast-changing events.

Like "raw intelligence" which hasn't yet been analyzed for reliability, such as by corroborating the information against other sources, there would be weaknesses.  Incorrect information can spread as quickly as correct information, but mistakes can be identified, and the general reliability of sources can be established over time.  Uncertain information can be flagged by the source, so that users don't overestimate the reliability.

The idea isn't to create an electronic "rumor mill" full of unreliable information or speculation about events, but rather to create an open process among a very selective group of international executives and expert analysts and advisors who can rapidly share their assessments of what is happening, and potential scenarios which executives may need to consider to protect their investment and other interests.

The following example, and the illustrative solution at right, shows how this concept might apply in practice.

Ultimately, we envision a private networking channel through which executives can share information on a global real-time basis at any time across the traditional boundaries of companies, countries, and limited networks of contacts.  The interface could include wireless devices.

From a technical standpoint, think of it as a global corporate intranet and knowledge sharing process, except that it transcends the boundaries of a corporation without being a public service such as through open Internet access to anyone.  The content should be shared more confidentially, as in the case of a private corporate network, except that it can be shared among all participants, or among selective groups of participants (analogous to a company division, committee, etc.).

Design Feedback Requested

We will announce further details as appropriate, as the service is developed.  For now, we would basically appreciate feedback from corporate executives about topics such as :

•  whether The GDI Alert™ service is of interest,
•  which executives at your company might benefit from participation
  • not just to receive Alerts, but to contribute them as appropriate
•  whether you are aware of something similar already
  • whether in operation, or under active development
  • including similar solutions within secure corporate intranets
•  how to make The GDI Alerts™ most valuable for your purposes
  • such as the type of situations to focus upon for Alerts
•  how to make it most convenient as a tool for frequent use
  • e-mail broadcasts?  telephone?  fax?  website for reference?
  • automated process to update a corporate intranet site?
    • similar to routine software updates, such as anti-virus
•  examples showing how it could be applied to your business needs
•  whether it should be a high priority for our development efforts
•  whether it is of sufficient interest to help fund the development of it
  • development and operation of such a service won't be cheap
•  whether you can offer other contributions (than investment) to it
  • technical expertise, contacts, infrastructure, knowledge, etc.

 Thank you in advance for your interest and consideration.

Country X has been a major destination of foreign investment in recent years, following policies which are very favorable to investors while developing a very transparent and open market with high growth.

A popular backlash is developing, however, among people who feel that the policies favor the elites of the country, and that the resources and workers of the country are being exploited by foreign investors. 

The government is feeling the pressure, while also dealing with the problem of international creditors who are increasingly nervous about the potential disruption to the economy and the risks of capital flight, a recession, and perhaps political instability or leadership changes and a rapid reversal of many pro-business policies.  The rapid growth of the country and heavy imports have created many economic pressures, as well as a debt burden which seemed justifiable but may not be sustainable if the country goes into a period of political and economic turmoil, with lower growth or a recession.

Some of the more radical opponents advocate expropriation of foreign investments, restrictions on the flow of capital, and nationalization of key industries as well as a return to "protection" of domestic companies.

The foreign investors are becoming easy scapegoats for the problems of the country, and the radical rhetoric is getting out of control.  Protest groups have started to attack and damage the facilities of foreign companies, and the press coverage of such sensational events is making the situation look much worse than it really is, which is scaring investors in the company elsewhere.

This radicalized environment is also raising the risks of personal security to executives doing business or visiting the country.  Although no overt warnings have been issued yet through government channels, which are reluctant to be perceived as exaggerating the instability of the current situation, there have been private discussions about growing security risks.  Expatriate executives have been reminded recently to be alert to suspicious activities and vary their routes and timing for travel to and from work or other common destinations, and both the executives and their families are worried even though they still think the precautions are just routine.

In the news today, however, a previously unknown group has announced that they have kidnapped a visiting senior executive of a foreign company, and are threatening to execute him unless various outlandish demands are met.  They don't seem to just be motivated by the desire to get a ransom, but it is unclear whether this is a terrorist action, or simply a criminal kidnapping which is exploiting the current environment to try to extract a high ransom from a company which is perceived to have "deep pockets".

Suddenly, executives all over the world are trying to figure out what is going on in Country X, and what it means for their business, while the financial media are also reporting actively on companies which may be at risk there.  The company executives in country know little more than anybody else about the latest events, as they are seeing the same news as everyone else, and were just as surprised by this latest turn of events.

To the surprise of almost everyone, the political opposition quickly made some  public statements in response to the kidnappers' demands which suggest that they are sympathetic, even though they don't advocate such methods.  There is now concern that the government may overreact and use this as an excuse to crack down on such opponents, and perhaps thereby expand the crisis or lead to more radical actions, such as this latest attack.

Alternate Scenario : A Positive Opportunity in Country X

Buy low, sell high.  Negotiate when the other party is highly motivated to do a deal quickly.  Crises can also be rare opportunities in disguise, if the risks involved are well understood, acceptable, and monitored carefully.

(see column at right for the GDI Alerts solution to this scenario)

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Obviously, there are no easy answers for executives facing the many uncertainties in Country X.  They may have millions of dollars at stake in current investments in Country X, their sales and costs of doing business in Country X may have a significant impact on their global performance, and the perceptions of their exposure to risks in Country X may be adversely affecting shareholder value and the operations of the company in many ways, even if nothing adverse eventually happens, or the actual impact is minimal. 

There are ways to hedge some of the financial risks of doing business in Country X, but at the end of the day, what can the executive do today to try to make the best of a volatile and unpredictable situation and protect the company?  There may be little or nothing the company can do to influence events in Country X, and some risks will always be unpredictable in such a dynamic situation, but the executives need to make choices about how best to respond to the events in Country X, and how to monitor developments there which might impact the company. 

Although the company has experienced and very capable management in the country, their reporting on events in the country and the potential implications for the company should perhaps not be the only source of knowledge about what is happening, or what to do.  On the other hand, there is perhaps little value to be gained from hiring outside advisors such as consultants at the moment, because although they may also have valuable insights to offer, they are basically facing the same challenges and are just a second opinion.

The GDI Forum™ essentially provides a process to share knowledge informally, quickly, and confidentially with other executives (and possibly relevant service providers, too).  In effect, nobody has the "right answer" about what to do, so there isn't necessarily a lot of objective and factual content to be published for reference, and events may be changing so rapidly that any reporting and analysis through traditional publishing processes can't easily keep pace with the need to share the latest insights, however imperfect and biased or subjective they may be.

It is analogous in some ways to the challenge facing government officials, as in the case of the State Department's "Operations Center", or the White House, etc.  Information flows in from lots of channels.  Some of it is well researched, objective, and credible.  Some of it is speculation, whether informed or unreliable, and some of it may prove to be completely wrong.

The challenge of the supporting service (such as the staff who are trying to help the executives make sense of it all) is to maintain the flow of information, try to distinguish what is reliable and unreliable, and seek whatever seems to be missing of potential importance to the top executives at the time.

That basically defines the role of GDI Solutions and The GDI Forum™ in such a scenario.  The GDI Forum™ becomes the networking process through which many executives and support professionals share knowledge (however imperfect) about what is going on, and the potential implications.  This also defines what the top executives are concerned about, such as to focus on specific things they want to know to support their decisions.  GDI Solutions is basically the infrastructure of relevant contacts and knowledge-sharing to help support the participants in  The GDI Forum™ dialogue about Country X, and to help fill in the gaps by seeking specific knowledge through shared custom research work (whether performed directly or through third party contracts).

In other words, it isn't the role of GDI Solutions to try to know everything about everyplace, such as the fast-changing and unpredictable events in Country X.

Instead, the focus is to create a process by which relevant knowledge and contacts can be pulled together and shared quickly, whether in anticipation of events and opportunities, or in response to unforeseen situations.  That can include experts "in country" as well as elsewhere.

In effect, thousands of business executives around the world can become their own network for sharing knowledge, insights, and proactive research about fast-changing events which defy any simple analysis and conclusions.